Freight Report · November 2025
2026 U.S. Freight Market Outlook
Spot vs. contract rate forecasts by equipment type, lane-level demand projections, and capacity exits expected through 2026.
Quick answer
Spot vs. contract rate forecasts by equipment type, lane-level demand projections, and capacity exits expected through 2026. Based on U.S. industry data across United States.
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Key findings
- $2.18/miVan spot rate Q2 2026Rebound clears reset thresholds across 7 of 9 regions.
- $2.52/miReefer spot rate Q3 2026Produce season pulls Western reefer +14%.
- FlatFlatbed spot rateSolar/wind tailwind offset by housing softness.
- 32,000 carriersCapacity exitsMostly 1–5 truck authorities under $1.85 break-even.
Methodology
Synthesis of DAT RateView, FreightWaves SONAR, Cass Freight Index, and ATA Tonnage Index — modeled with a 60-month rolling regression.
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