U.S. freight rates follow four consistent seasons: produce (May–July, reefer peaks with rates $0.30–$0.50/mi above baseline out of CA and FL), back-to-school (August–September, dry van tightens), peak season (October–December, all equipment peaks around Thanksgiving), and post-holiday lull (mid-January to third week of February, rates trough $0.20–$0.35/mi below annual average).
Season 1: produce (May–July)
The largest annual reefer swing. CA Central Valley cherry, stone fruit, and strawberry loads push reefer rates out of Bakersfield and Salinas up $0.30–$0.50/mi. FL loads (citrus, watermelon) do the same. Peaks around July 4 as retailers stock produce for the holiday.
If you run reefer, this is the highest-earning 10 weeks of the year. Plan zero downtime.
Season 2: back-to-school (August–September)
Dry van tightens as retailers restock. Ports (LA/LB, Savannah, Houston) run hot. Expect $0.15–$0.30/mi lift on port-outbound dry van.
This is the first sign of Q4 tightness — a strong back-to-school usually predicts a strong peak season, and vice versa.
Season 3: peak season (October–December)
All equipment tightens. Peak actually peaks in early November (pre-Thanksgiving inventory push), softens slightly in early December, then a mini-peak the week before Christmas.
Rates can be $0.40–$0.80/mi above baseline in tight markets like out-of-CA reefer and Northeast dry van. Two-day booking horizons become common.
Season 4: the post-holiday lull (mid-Jan to Feb 20)
The cheapest freight of the year. Inventory refills happen in bursts and load-to-truck ratios drop below 1.5 in most markets. Rates fall $0.20–$0.35/mi below annual average.
Working carrier plan: hit deferred maintenance (DPF clean, PMs, tire rotations), take a week off, and start prepping for the produce season.
Month-by-month rate map for a dry-van solo
Jan–Feb: post-holiday soft, expect 10–15% below annual average, best month to catch up on maintenance. Mar–May: produce ramp-up, West Coast outbound rates lift 15–25%. Jun–Aug: peak produce plus back-to-school stocking, second-strongest window.
Sep–Oct: retail peak-season pre-build, best full-quarter for spot rates in the year. Nov: Thanksgiving pull, then softening. Dec: strong through the 15th, dead the rest of the month — plan home-time here, not July.
How to hedge the two soft windows
January and late December are unavoidable soft periods. The two hedges that work: pre-book one or two dedicated shipper contracts in Q4 to cover January base miles, and pre-schedule your annual DOT inspection, PM service, and vacation into the second half of December.
Running for spot in the two soft weeks after Christmas usually costs more in deadhead and fuel than the loads pay. Working carriers plan to park those weeks intentionally.
Frequently asked questions
When's the cheapest freight of the year?
Mid-January through the third week of February. Load-to-truck ratios bottom for the year.
How much rate variance is seasonal vs. cyclical?
Roughly 15% seasonal, 60% equipment/region, 25% cyclical (2-3 year freight cycle).
Should I switch equipment for produce season?
Only if you already own reefer capability. Buying a reefer trailer for one season doesn't pay back for 3+ years.